Choosing to back up his argument with passages from a dusty 65-year-old tome, Forrester CEO George Colony has written a controversial blog post provocatively titled “Apple = Sony” in which he argues that now that Steve Jobs is dead, Apple is coasting on fumes and will begin its inevitable decline within the next two to four years.

The gist? “when Steve Jobs departed, he took three things with him,” says Colony. “1) [A] singular charismatic leadership that bound the company together and elicited extraordinary performance from its people; 2) the ability to take big risks, and 3) an unparalleled ability to envision and design products.”

Much of Colony’s argument comes down to this assertion: there is no longer a “singular charismatic leader” at Apple. when it comes to reality distortion fields, Tim Cook may be no Steve Jobs, but much of what Colony says about the vacuum of leadership at Cupertino is completely untrue. In fact, Apple’s arguably in better shape now than it ever was when Jobs was at the helm.

Colony claims that when Jobs died, Apple merely “chose a proven and competent executive to succeed [him]” instead of the “special, magical individual” it needed.

It’s an easy bet to say that Apple will eventually decline in the post-Jobs era, which effectively stretches from Oct. 6, 2011 to infinity.

That’s disingenuous. it wasn’t just Apple’s board of directors who chose Tim Cook as Apple’s new CEO, it was Steve Jobs himself who recommended Cook for the job. and it was precisely because Cook is a “special, magical person” that Jobs groomed him to be his successor.

True, Cook can sometimes come across a little boring compared to the fiery, idiosyncratic Jobs. but Cook has the mojo to be the once and future king.

Much of Apple’s success over the last 10 years can be directly attributed to Cook, particularly in the way the soft-spoken Alabaman pieced together Apple’s supply chain into a fierce weapon the company can use to undercut its competition, dominate resources, ship devices at unprecedented volumes and deliver products that are literally a year ahead of its competitors … all while taking in bigger profits than literally any other force in the industry.

Time and time again over the past decade, Tim Cook has proven himself to be a leader who can, as Colony writes, bind Apple together and elicit extraordinary performance from its employees. and largely thanks to Cook’s incredible supply chain acumen, Apple has put together a war chest of money in the bank that gives the company more leeway than anyone to take extraordinary risks.

But Tim Cook is only part of the equation.

Colony also claims in his post that Apple is now missing an “unparalleled” visionary to design and create its products. such a claim is patently absurd. Apple’s design chief Sir Jonathan Ive — the man Steve Jobs once called his “spiritual partner” and the genius behind Apple’s iconic aesthetic and design language — is still working at Apple. More importantly, as Jobs bragged to his biographer, Jony Ive has just as much operational power at Apple as Tim Cook himself. Cook is only nominally Ive’s boss: In reality, thanks to Steve, they’re equals.

Colony’s right in that Apple no longer has a “singular charismatic leader” now that Jobs is gone. Instead, it has two: Tim Cook and Jonathan Ive, Steve Jobs’ chosen successors, whose talents and skills in leading Apple to greatness have been proven again and again over the last decade. but even that’s not where it ends, as it’s a matter of record that Jobs spent much of his time over the last five years of his life putting together a program to impart the DNA of what makes Apple and its products great to whole new generation of executives.

Since Jobs died in October, Apple has released two major new products, the iPhone 4S and third-gen iPad. it has unveiled a new operating system, OS X Mountain Lion. it has gone to unprecedented lengths to empower workers in its supply chain and improve their pay and quality of life. its stock has surged by 61 percent. it has become the world’s most valuable public company. it has had its two most profitable quarters ever. This is coasting?

It’s an easy bet to say that Apple will eventually decline in the post-Jobs era, which effectively stretches from Oct. 6, 2011 to infinity. Likewise, the sun may one morning fail to rise in the east. but Colony’s more immediate predictions of Apple’s demise are stupid and wrong-headed.

Steve Jobs planned the future of Apple well. This is only the beginning.

Apple = Sony? Don’t You Believe It

(Credit:James Martin/CNET )

Forrester CEO George Colony has argued that Apple is going to turn out a lot like Sony — a consumer electronics juggernaut that lost its way and turned out to be a complete mess.

Colony’s argument, which raised a bit of a ruckus, has a familiar contrarian ring to it. You set up an argument, sound very rational and people buy into it. Bearish arguments always sound better. I’ve had my share of bearish arguments and bets only to find out you can sound pretty damn good and be extremely wrong.

The crux of Colony’s case is that Apple was a charismatic organization that revolved around Steve Jobs. Colony said:

Apple’s momentum will carry it for 24-48 months. but without the arrival of a new charismatic leader it will move from being a great company to being a good company, with a commensurate step down in revenue growth and product innovation. like Sony (post Morita), Polaroid (post Land), Apple circa 1985 (post Jobs), and Disney (in the 20 years post Walt Disney), Apple will coast, and then decelerate.

Now this isn’t a huge leap to make. Apple is at the top of the mountain in tech. that reality usually means there’s only one place to go. of course, Apple will slip somewhere. Every company does. but Colony argues Apple will be like Sony. Here are five reasons — that have nothing to do with charisma — why Apple won’t become Sony 2.0.

Apple isn’t a silo-ed conglomerate. One reason Apple won’t be Sony is because the organizational structure is completely different. Sony’s business units break down like this: Content (movies and music), games, TVs, consumer electronics, smartphones and financial services. Sony’s problems largely stem from a lack of coordination between its units. Apple is vertically integrated. Colony’s argument would have more merit to me if Apple suddenly started developing movies.

When Apple’s annual report has a chart like — via Sony’s annual report — this one, you can start the worrywart parade.

Connective tissue. Apple’s products and services are all integrated and designed to couple hardware, software and design. Sony had no connective tissue. even Apple’s likely foray into television will have glue connecting the new product to other products like theiPad,iPhone andMac. this connective tissue shouldn’t be underestimated. Apple has spent decades with its integration approach.

Supply chain prowess. Apple dominates the technology supply chain like no other company in recent memory. Flash memory is dominated by Apple. Apple can use Foxconn as if it is its own manufacturing arm. Apple can dictate terms with suppliers, grab LCD screen supplies and procure parts like no other. Colony partially dismisses Cook’s charisma and creativity. I’d argue he’s just looking at the wrong part of the company. Apple’s supply chain — largely created by Cook — is a work of art.

Preparation and institutionalized culture. Apple’s biggest advantage leading into the post Jobs era is that it saw everything coming. Jobs didn’t die suddenly. the company created Apple University and is institutionalizing product design. on Apple’s most recent earnings conference call, Cook was asked about the merger of tablets and laptops. He said:

Well, I think anything can be forced to merge. but the problem is that the products are about tradeoffs. and you begin to make tradeoffs to the point where what you have left at the end of the day doesn’t please anyone. and you can converge a toaster and a refrigerator, but those things probably not going to be pleasing to the user.

It’s unclear whether Apple has taken the Jobs culture and institutionalized it, but the company is more prepared than any comparison earlier.

An obvious untapped market. Let’s say Colony is correct and Apple simply coasts. Well guess what? Apple is encroaching on the enterprise market without really trying. Apple could theoretically slip in the consumer market and make up its profit and margins by dealing more directly with businesses. Sony had no obvious slam dunk ahead. Also don’t forget Cook was a former IBMer. He knows the enterprise.

This article originally appeared at ZDNet’s Between the Lines under the headline “Five not-so-obvious reasons why Apple won’t be Sony redux.”

No, Apple won’t go the Sony route